By Keith Loria

If the first week of the season is any indication of what Mets fans should expect for the 2009 major league baseball season, then there will be a lot of familiarity in the air. The Mets started the season 3-4, sweating out the victories and not finding the late-inning clutch hits in the losses. And for some reason, the team just can’t find an answer to the low-budget Marlins, who defeated them two games to one, besting No. 1 pitcher Johan Santana in the process.

But general manager Omar Minaya believes that he made enough changes in the off-season to get the Mets back over the top of the defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies—not to mention the young Marlins and ever-present Atlanta Braves.

“I’ve always said championships are won on the field, not on predictions,” Minaya said upon learning that Sports Illustrated had chosen the Mets as the team to beat in 2009. “I think we're a good team, but we've been a good team on paper for the past three years, and all we have to show for it right now is one playoff appearance.

“But I like what we have done.”

What the Mets have done is keep most of the core of the team in place (in fact, all eight position players return from the end of last season) and bringing back four of their five starters. But one look at the bullpen, which most blame for the Mets collapse in each of the last two seasons, and you start to notice big changes.

First off, last season’s American League save leader Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez signed as their new closer and he’s expected to do far more than the rag-tag committee of Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez and Scott Schoeneweis did in the closer role once Billy Wagner went down with injury.

The rest of a revamped bullpen consists of former Seattle closer J.J.  Putz, who will be handling 8^th inning duties, Darren O’Day, Bobby Parnell, Brian Stokes and Sean Green. Pedro Feliciano is the only lefty in the pen and one of the few holdovers that the Mets seem to have faith in.

As for starters, Livan Hernandez won a contested contest over Freddy Garcia and John Niese for the fifth spot, and he pitched the best of the Mets starters over the first week. Johan Santana should continue in his Cy Young form and possibly be the team’s first 20-game winner in a while—if the bullpen doesn’t blow seven games for him as they did last year. Mike Pelfrey did a lot in his first full season, but it seems a little unrealistic to envision anything more than the 13 wins he racked up last year. Questions remain about John Maine, who is coming off an injury and the always flappable Oliver Perez, whose stuff can be lights out or awful on any given day.

“We have five guys who I am confident with in taking the mound and it’s as deep as any other five in the league,” said manager Jerry Manuel at the beginning of the season.

The only real change in offense comes in the form of late-season fan favorite Daniel Murphy, who becomes the team’s full-time left fielder. Murphy provides a keen eye in the second hole and should produce around .300. Ryan Church is the right-fielder for now, but with Fernando Tatis and Gary Sheffield both looking for some playing time, his position could quickly become a platoon situation. You can expect Carlos Beltran to bounce back a little and up his steal and RBI totals and overall the outfield is strong for the team.

The Mets are going to need the Carlos Delgado they saw in the second half if they are going to go anywhere this season. First half Delgado looked like he was finished, while during the second half he looked like an MVP. Even if he produces half-way and finishes with 30 homers and 95 RBI, the team will be happy. We’ve been hearing so much about Jose Reyes and David Wright for years, but now it’s time for one or both of them to step it up and become the leader they need to be. While both put up All-Star numbers, they both seemed to disappear down the stretch and in clutch situations. Wright looks like he is responding to that criticism early, by hitting a game-tying three-run homer with two outs on opening night of Citi Field. Reyes, on the other hand, couldn’t do anything in that same game, failing with the bases loaded late in the game when the Mets were down by a run.

Two spots that should have been upgraded and weren’t in the off-season are at second base and catcher. The team has so much money invested in Luis Castillo that it was forced to bring him back, despite All-Star Orlando Hudson being available for a bargain basement price of $3 million. Castillo has started strong though and is batting over .350 for the first week. That’s more than you can ask out of the eighth spot. Brian Schneider returns as the starting catcher and while he is solid defensively, you get very little offense from him. Look for Ramon Castro to steal a lot of at-bats throughout the season.

The final piece of the Mets puzzle this season is in now full-time manager Jerry Manuel, who the team performed well under in half a season last year after Willie Randolph was fired, but who still couldn’t prevent his own team’s collapse the final week of the season. Manuel is an affable, popular boss who seems to get the most out of his players, and that’s important for a Mets team that has faltered the last two Septembers.

With Santana, K-Rod, Wright and Reyes, the team has four of perhaps the best 25 players in the game, but the surrounding casts needs to step up if the Mets are going to win the division. Schneider, Castillo, Tatis, Maine and Putz will have just as much to do with the chance of a title than the All-Stars, and it’s up to Manuel to keep the unit playing together and focused when things get tense.