By Mark Berner

Mine That Bird, winner of the Kentucky Derby and second in The Preakness, drew post position seven and was installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite for the June-6 Belmont Stakes. A field of ten has been assembled for the longest and oldest Triple Crown race. The 141^st running of the 1 ½-mile classic will not be the stage for a rematch between Mine That Bird and the Preakness-winning filly Rachel Alexander. However, jockey Calvin Borel who rode both winners and has a chance to be the first rider to win all three Triple Crown races on different horses, guaranteed that Mine That Bird will win.

When a jockey gives a tip on his horse it merits some attention. Borel made the same prediction when he rode Rachel Alexander ($5.60) in the Preakness and he was correct. “I'll let him run his race like I did in the Derby,” said Borel. “He has an unbelievable turn of foot. That's why I like the little horse.”

Should you take Borel's advice and bet the favorite?

If you've spent any time at a race track you know it's not that easy. Jockeys and trainers always like their horses. Although he's been right before, Borel faces a tougher time aboard Mine That Bird in the Belmont Stakes. The field will be smaller than in the Derby and Preakness and the early pace of the race will be slower than in either of the two previous Triple Crown races. Fewer horses should provide a clear trip for those that got into traffic with bulkier fields in the first two legs. And a slower pace usually makes it tougher for a horse like Mine That Bird that does his best racing when he comes from far behind the early leaders.

Bennie 'Chip' Woolley, Jr., trainer of Mine That Bird, also expressed confidence in his horse. “If you watch Mine That Bird run, his stride is bigger than most horses.” Woolley said. “He has a huge stride and gets over the ground real easy. If we can be within 10-to-12 (lengths) of them, I'm confident he'll have enough kick left.”

Another factor in determining the winner of the Belmont Stakes will be the history of the race itself. Belmont Park has been the scene of many upsets and many heavily-favored horses have come up short of winning the 12 furlong Test of the Champion. There have been 11 successful winners of the Triple Crown and 11 that have completed the Derby-Belmont double, but 19 horses  have been denied the Triple Crown by virtue of a loss in the Belmont Stakes.

Big Brown won the first two legs last year and lost in a major upset at Belmont Park. Smarty Jones did the same in 2004, Funny Cide in 2003 and War Emblem in 2002. In fact, since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, 11 horses have won the Derby and Preakness, only to fail in the Belmont Stakes. While a jockey doesn't need the same time to recuperate following a race, it's a tough go for a young 3-year-old colt to run in three grueling races run over a five-week period.

After Mine That Bird, the next two logical contenders are Dunkirk and Charitable Man. Dunkirk was the talk of Louisville before the Derby, but the lightly-raced colt stumbled, was steadied, and finished 11^th of 19 when he caught a sloppy track he didn't care for at Churchill Downs. Trainer Todd Plecther chose to skip The Preakness and await the Belmont Stakes. In the interim Dunkirk trained well at Belmont Park and Pletcher has chosen 'go rider' John Velazquez to ride this colt for the first time. Pletcher won the 2007 Belmont Stakes with John Velazquez aboard the filly Rags to Riches. “After all the dust settled after the Derby, we looked at all the possibilities,” Pletcher said. “We felt like John Velazquez has been our go-to guy for a long time and we've had a lot of success together, including this race, so we made the choice to go with him.”

Charitable Man won Belmont's Peter Pan Stakes, the local prep race for the Belmont Stakes, in his last start and has the speed to control the pace on Saturday.  Kiaran McGaughlin trains Charitable Man and McGaughlin won his first try in the Belmont Stakes with Jazil in 2006. “Hopefully we'll be 2-for-2 Saturday,” said McGaughlin. “Our horse couldn't be doing any better. We're very excited. Charitable Man should be on or near the lead. I wouldn't trade places with anyone.”

The logical contenders won't provide much value from a betting perspective so a long look at the remainder of the field could provide evidence of a big payoff. If logic doesn't excite you then pedigree, trends and patterns may. The pedigree angle shows that Belmont Stakes winners are sired by previous Belmont Stakes winners, and once again points out two of the logical contenders. Mine That Bird is by 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone and Charitable Man is by 1999 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. Additionally, Summer Bird was also sired by Birdstone. After recognized handicapping methods such as class, form, speed figures and pedigree, fans often pick horses by post position, by name, and by color. To that end, post position number one has won 23 times since 1905, number five has 14 wins, number 3 has 13, and number 7 has 12. The letter 'C' is the most popular with 20 winners, followed by 'S' with 17, and 'P' with 11. Bay horses have won 53 times with chestnuts right behind at 51.